With South Africa’s National Elections looming on the horizon, businesses across the country find themselves in a state of cautious anticipation. The landscape of possibilities for the upcoming election presents a complex puzzle, leaving many enterprises adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in response to the unfolding political dynamics.
Isaah Mhlanga, RMB’s Chief Economist and Head of Research, has outlined four plausible scenarios that could materialize following the 2024 elections, each carrying significant implications for the nation’s future trajectory.
In the first scenario, if the ANC secures above 50% of the votes, it won’t necessitate forming a coalition government. Mhlanga predicts a continuation of the present policy trajectory albeit at a sluggish pace, focusing on reforms in critical sectors such as energy, logistics, water, and safety and security.
The second scenario entails the ANC obtaining between 45% and 50% of the vote, potentially leading to a coalition formation with smaller parties, thereby avoiding collaboration with the DA and EFF. Expert opinions in various panel discussions lean towards this scenario as the most likely outcome.
However, the third scenario envisages a coalition between the ruling party and the EFF, a partnership that might usher in a more populist government. Such an alliance could potentially decelerate ongoing reforms, provoking a negative market reaction according to Mhlanga.
The least likely scenario, as perceived by experts, involves the ANC and DA uniting forces to form a coalition. Despite its potential for better overall outcomes for the country, this prospect is considered improbable given the current political landscape.
Amid the haze of uncertainty shrouding the 2024 election, businesses find themselves ensnared in a state of limbo, awaiting the political tides to settle before making substantial moves.
Forecasts indicate a high probability of a coalition government in 2024, as indicated by research conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation. The ANC’s declining support from 48% in November 2022 to a mere 41% in October of the election year stems from concerns surrounding unemployment, corruption, power outages, and crime, voiced by disillusioned voters.
While only 23% of respondents expressed intent to vote for the DA, the emergence of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), encompassing parties like the DA, IFP, ASA, FF+, appears to gain traction with an estimated 36% of the votes, according to the foundation’s research.
A substantial 74% of respondents have expressed openness to the notion of a coalition government, signaling a willingness for diverse political collaborations. The MPC’s formation has significantly challenged the ANC’s dominance, standing as a formidable alliance of opposition parties, garnering notable recognition within a short span.
Notably, survey results unveil a shift in voter inclinations, with a quarter of respondents indicating an increased inclination towards opposition parties following the MPC’s inception. This suggests a potential surge in voter support, provided the MPC solidifies its brand identity and clarifies its policy focus and narrative.
In a surprising turn, an ANC-EFF coalition has also secured noteworthy support among respondents. A tie between preferences for the MPC and the ANC-EFF coalition at 21% underscores the diverse range of possibilities that could materialize post-election.
The looming political landscape remains enigmatic, with various potential outcomes poised to reshape South Africa’s future. As businesses await the unfolding of these scenarios, their strategies and decisions hang in a delicate balance, intertwined with the outcome of the impending elections.
