South Africa’s composite business cycle indicators have shown a mixed bag of results, according to a recent press release from the Reserve Bank. The composite leading business cycle indicator, a key measure of future economic activity, decreased for a third consecutive month by 1.0% in April 2023. This is in contrast to the composite coincident and lagging business cycle indicators, which both saw increases in March 2023.
The composite leading business cycle indicator is a crucial tool for economists and investors alike, providing a glimpse into the future economic health of the country. The decrease in this indicator suggests that the South African economy may face some headwinds in the coming months. Seven of the ten available component time series decreased, with the largest negative contributors being a narrowing of the interest rate spread and a deterioration in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index.
The interest rate spread, which is the difference between the yield on 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, has been narrowing. This could indicate that investors are becoming more cautious about the long-term prospects of the South African economy. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, a measure of sentiment among businesses, has also deteriorated, pointing to a potential slowdown in business activity.
On the flip side, there were some positive contributors to the leading indicator. The six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space and real M1 money supply both saw accelerations. This suggests that despite the overall decrease in the leading indicator, there are still areas of the economy that are showing signs of strength.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator, which reflects current economic conditions, increased by 1.0% in March 2023. This increase was largely due to an uptick in the industrial production index, indicating that the manufacturing sector is performing well.
The composite lagging business cycle indicator, which tends to rise or fall after the economy as a whole does, also increased by 0.3% in March 2023. This suggests that the effects of past economic policies and decisions are still influencing the economy.
The mixed signals from these indicators highlight the uncertainty facing the South African economy. While some sectors are showing signs of strength, others are facing challenges. The Reserve Bank will likely continue to monitor these indicators closely as it makes decisions about monetary policy.
The next release of the composite business cycle indicators is scheduled for 25 July 2023, at 09:00 A.M. This will provide further insight into the direction of the South African economy and will be closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers alike.