Categories: Forex News
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2023-10-27 8:27 AM

EUR/USD Faces Pressure; SA Markets Eye US Inflation Data

  • EUR/USD's Struggle with Resilience: The EUR/USD pair grapples with a bearish trend, affected by both the US Treasury bond yields and the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish stance. This has held it just above the mid-1.0500s despite the pull downwards.
  • US and Eurozone Economic Signals: The US showcases signs of strong economic health, with a 4.9% annualized growth in Q3 and a surge in September’s Durable Goods Orders. Conversely, the ECB halts its consistent rate hikes due to concerns over Eurozone growth, with its President Christine Lagarde indicating possible weak growth ahead.
  • Anticipation of US Core PCE Price Index Release: Market players, including those in South Africa, are eagerly awaiting the US Core PCE Price Index – a significant inflation indicator. This data will shape market expectations about future interest rate decisions by the Fed, influencing global currency dynamics.
By Nonhlanhla

The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a tug of war as it finds difficulty in building on its previous day’s modest recovery from a position slightly above the 1.0520 mark, marking its lowest point in over a week. As the Asian trading session on Friday unfolds, the pair is exhibiting a slight bearish bias, marking its fourth consecutive day in this stance. Despite this, the pair manages to sustain its position just above the mid-1.0500s, showcasing a level of resilience in the market.

The South African rand, along with other emerging market currencies, is closely watching these developments, as the USD’s strength has direct implications for its performance and the broader South African economy.

A slight increase in the yields from US Treasury bonds is lending support to the US Dollar (USD), placing the EUR/USD pair on the defensive. The US dollar’s strength is further bolstered by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, collectively creating headwinds for the Euro.

In the US, signs of inflation cooling off are present, yet the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains unwavering in its hawkish stance, indicating a likelihood of maintaining elevated interest rates. This position is backed by robust economic performance, with data revealing 4.9% annualized growth in the third quarter, surpassing the 4.2% initial estimates. Additionally, September saw a 4.7% surge in US Durable Goods Orders, outstripping market predictions and adding more pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

The European Central Bank, in its latest meeting, opted to maintain its rates, pausing a series of 10 consecutive hikes in borrowing costs. This decision stems from growing apprehensions regarding the Eurozone’s economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde communicated a cautious outlook, indicating potential weaknesses in growth for the remaining part of the year, despite leaving the door open for possible rate increases in the future.

In the South African context, these international monetary movements are of paramount importance. The performance of the USD against the Euro and other major currencies directly influences the rand’s stability and the country’s economic health.

Investors and traders in South Africa and globally are now directing their attention towards the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this data is poised to play a crucial role in shaping market anticipations regarding the Fed’s rate-hike trajectory, subsequently influencing USD demand.

Despite the ongoing market fluctuations and uncertainties, the EUR/USD pair seems to be aligning itself for a week of modest losses, a trend that will undoubtedly capture the attention of market participants in South Africa and around the globe.

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Nonhlanhla P Dube is a senior news reporter. Nonhlanhla is a student of International Relations at the University of South Africa. She reports primarily on personal finance and economics. You can contact her on: Email: