As the global crypto market grapples with uncertainty, XRP, known as the digital payment protocol, is mirroring this instability. At the time of writing, XRP’s trading volume has plummeted to $933 million (ZAR 17.69 billion), significantly lower than the $1 billion threshold, representing a notable shift in investor sentiment. Additionally, its market capitalisation has nosedived from $44 billion (ZAR 834.24 billion) in early July to $33 billion (ZAR 625.68 billion).
Predicting Price Movements with Technical Indicators
Traders, including those in South Africa’s growing cryptocurrency market, are utilising Bollinger Bands to anticipate XRP’s probable price drop. A bearish divergence is observed when the price makes a higher high while the upper band makes a lower high. This divergence suggests that XRP’s upward momentum is fading and sellers are increasingly taking control. Traders speculating on this downtrend may be preparing for short positions, particularly if the price breaches the lower Bollinger Band. This is a key signal that XRP is deviating from its typical range and a robust downtrend is likely imminent.
In terms of potential price targets for traders who are selling XRP short, they are looking for the price to dip below the initial support at $0.62 (ZAR 11.76) and extend losses to $0.60 (ZAR 11.38) before considering a major trend reversal. On the flip side, the bulls are looking for a breach above the short-term resistance level—marked by the 50-day EMA—to fuel a bullish comeback. Nonetheless, aspirations of an uptrend targeting $0.7 (ZAR 13.27), $0.85 (ZAR 16.12), and $1 (ZAR 18.96) may be slow to manifest amidst the persistent sideways market movements. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator further corroborates the ongoing ranging motion within this four-hour time frame.
SEC vs. Ripple: The Ongoing Legal Battle
Drawing significant global attention—including interest from South Africa’s burgeoning crypto community—is the protracted legal battle between Ripple Labs and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Notable crypto lawyer, John Deaton, recently reiterated his stance on a partial ruling in this case. The judge ruled that XRP sales conducted on third-party platforms, such as Binance and Coinbase, are not securities, contrasting those made directly to institutions, which are deemed as securities.
In response to ongoing narratives and confusion surrounding this ruling, Deaton took to Twitter to stress that, contrary to what has been suggested, most XRP transactions are not securities transactions. He emphasised that even if the court were to grant the SEC’s interlocutory appeal request, this would not automatically categorise XRP transactions as securities.
“That would assume just because the SEC claims it is, means it is. That’s not even close to being accurate,” Deaton said via Twitter.
It is anticipated that the SEC’s appeal will focus on the programmatic sales of XRP via third-party platforms, a matter which the regulatory agency argues presents “controlling questions of law on which there is substantial ground for differences of opinion”.
A South African Context
As cryptocurrency adoption continues to grow in South Africa, the outcome of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit may have far-reaching implications. South African investors and traders, along with their global counterparts, are keenly watching how this legal drama unfolds, as it holds the potential to set a precedent for how digital assets might be regulated in various jurisdictions, including South Africa.