Euro Eyes Potential Rebound Towards 1.0955 Level, UOB Analysts Suggest

  • UOB Group's Markets Strategist and Senior Economist predict further upside for EUR/USD, expecting it to retest the 1.0955 level in the near term.
  • In the short term, EUR/USD is expected to edge higher to 1.0955, with improved upward momentum. However, the major resistance at 1.1000 is unlikely to come into view.
  • The next 1-3 weeks will be crucial for EUR/USD. It must break and stay above 1.0955 to maintain a chance of advancing to 1.1000. Conversely, if it breaks below 1.0860, it indicates that the recent EUR strength has diminished.

According to UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior Economist Alvin Liew, there are expectations for further upside in EUR/USD, with a potential revisit to the 1.0955 level in the near term. Here are the key points from their analysis:

In the short term, EUR/USD is expected to experience consolidative price actions, with a projected trading range of 1.0890 to 1.0950. The currency pair recently reached a high of 1.0946 before retracing to 1.0891 and ultimately closing at 1.0916 (-0.05%). Despite this slight decline, there has been a marginal improvement in upward momentum. As a result, there is a forecast for EUR/USD to edge higher towards the 1.0955 level. However, it is important to note that the major resistance at 1.1000 is unlikely to be breached at this time. On the downside, a break below 1.0890, with minor support at 1.0905, would indicate a fading of the current mild upward pressure.

Looking ahead to the next 1-3 weeks, the previous analysis suggested that EUR/USD would continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key level to monitor was identified as 1.1000. However, following a period of consolidation, the upward momentum has somewhat diminished. To sustain the potential for further advances towards 1.1000, EUR/USD must successfully break and maintain levels above 1.0955 in the next 1-2 days. Failure to do so would quickly diminish the likelihood of reaching the 1.1000 level. Conversely, if EUR/USD drops below the strong support level at 1.0860 (previously at 1.0845), it would indicate that the recent strength of the euro, which commenced over a week ago, has exhausted its momentum.

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