Initiating July on a hopeful note, Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s premier cryptocurrency, demonstrates resilience as it sustains a solid support at around R572,586 (or $30,626), exhibiting strength across weekly and monthly timeframes. Despite the substantial 20% gain in Q2, traders and analysts within South Africa and globally are now focusing their attention on the future prospects of Bitcoin.
In the traditional finance (TradFi) realm, markets are anticipated to exhibit tranquility this week, as Wall Street gears up for the US Independence Day celebrations and scarce macroeconomic data is expected from the United States. To challenge the long-standing resistance levels, Bitcoin will require volatility triggers from other sources.
Opinions among market participants, including those in South Africa, are diverse. Some predict that Bitcoin could easily breach R598,890 ($32,000) and ascend further, while others perceive this month as the pinnacle of Bitcoin’s 2023 rebound. Factors that might influence Bitcoin’s price performance in the upcoming days and weeks are under close scrutiny.
The past week concluded on a positive note for Bitcoin bulls, with moderate volatility and the BTC/USD pair maintaining its upward trajectory. The new week observed Bitcoin touching R576,656 ($30,850) on Bitstamp, approaching the R578,768 ($31,000) mark and annual highs. However, with an absence of catalysts for a trend shift, optimistic traders are awaiting further validation of upside continuation.
Noted trader Jelle remains bullish, highlighting a favourable market structure and Bitcoin reclaiming the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). He foresees the bull market’s ignition once the R598,890 ($32,000) resistance area is surmounted. Other traders, like Crypto Ed, are anticipating a push towards R672,144 ($36,000) and even R748,400 ($40,000), albeit with an expectation of a retracement to R522,620 ($28,000) as a potential dip-buying opportunity.
Bitcoin whales also contribute to maintaining the BTC price range, as indicated by the on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators. These whales have been distributing and purchasing during the dips in the R572,586 ($30,000) range, aiding in keeping Bitcoin within its current price range.
However, not all traders harbour bullish sentiments. CryptoBullet predicts a termination to the bullish moves in July, with a local top around R672,144 ($36,000), followed by a potential dip and possibly forfeiting key moving averages.
Even though the macroeconomic atmosphere is expected to remain tranquil this week, the focus has shifted to the U.S. banking sector. Regional banks persistently face challenges, and even the Bank of America (BoA) has encountered losses due to bond purchases. The scenario unfolding in Germany’s central bank also raises questions about the stability of fiat currencies and central banks, which has implications for Bitcoin and the South African cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin miners emphasize the importance of BTC surpassing and maintaining the R572,586 ($30,000) level, as they increase the amount of coins sent to exchanges. Nevertheless, overall miner balances have demonstrated a gradual uptrend since the onset of 2023, suggesting that miners are not facing severe hardships.
On a positive note, steadfast Bitcoin hodlers exhibit strong conviction, refusing to sell despite the price fluctuations. The quantity of BTC considered “illiquid” has attained levels unseen since the bear market of 2022, indicating that hodlers, including those in South Africa, are holding firm to their positions.
The overall sentiment in the crypto market, including the South African market, remains indecisive, as reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index