Bitcoin and Ethereum Stability and Prospects

  • Bitcoin Analysis: Despite fluctuating between ZAR 535,314 and ZAR 572,374 for almost a month, Bitcoin remains stable, with potential for an upward movement if it can secure closes above ZAR 572,374. However, if it fails to maintain ZAR 534,695, the price could potentially fall.
  • Ethereum Analysis: Ethereum's price has remained weak despite decreased supply and increased demand for staking. While the currency maintains a level above ZAR 34,531.9, the bulls have struggled to sustain strength above the psychological resistance level of ZAR 36,221.
  • The Federal Reserve’s forthcoming interest rate decision may significantly influence the crypto market. If an interest rate ceiling is announced, it could encourage upward movement. However, a 25bp increase may lead to a decrease in prices as it signals the start of pricing for the subsequent 25bp increase.

Bitcoin, often referred to as the king of cryptocurrencies, remains resilient, continuing to secure a price above ZAR 543,300 in the South African currency today. Likewise, Ethereum (ETH), the leading alternative cryptocurrency, or altcoin, maintains a position above ZAR 34,391. However, investors are expressing concern due to the fleeting excitement following Ripple’s (XRP) recent victory in court, coupled with the stagnation of prices despite multiple applications for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). So, what are the critical levels at play in the South African context? And why is there a dip in investor confidence?

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin retains its value at the ZAR 548,443 level. Even though the ZAR 543,300 level was briefly tested in the early morning, the bullish market sentiment successfully defended this position. However, the critical level of ZAR 551,354 has not been reclaimed. The market capitalisation that began to rally following BlackRock’s ETF application on June 15 led to an upswing in price to ZAR 576,258. Nonetheless, the price has been oscillating between ZAR 570,014 and ZAR 536,076 for nearly a month. Past trends suggest that such periods of consolidation can often give way to higher prices. Therefore, it seems likely that the price may reach new highs if it closes above ZAR 570,014. However, time is running out for price direction determination. If the price reverses for the fourth time after three rebounds from the bottom, it is likely to start moving in the anticipated direction.

Should the ZAR 534,365 level fail to hold, we could potentially see the price drop to the ZAR 518,286 and ZAR 485,988 regions. Conversely, if the market turns bullish, targets of ZAR 616,400 and ZAR 724,400 remain valid. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates towards the end of the month will significantly influence the trajectory for crypto investors on a macro level. If an interest rate ceiling is announced, this could present an opportunity for an upward price movement. However, if a 25 basis point increase is declared, we might see downward targets as pricing for a subsequent 25 basis point increase begins.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis

Ethereum, often regarded as the king of altcoins, appears unresponsive to negative inflation or network growth. While many other altcoins have recovered by more than 200% from their lows, ETH’s performance has been comparatively lacklustre. The decreasing supply on exchanges and the increasing demand for staking have not buoyed the price. Currently, the price stands at ZAR 34,770.10. The present level is suitable for further upward movement, but bulls have struggled to maintain a strong position above the psychological resistance level of ZAR 36,220. If the price continues to find support above this region, a rally towards ZAR 39,842 and ZAR 45,275 might begin. Otherwise, should the ZAR 34,391 and ZAR 33,878 levels be breached, the price might fall below ZAR 32,600 again.

As cryptocurrency continues to gain prominence in South Africa, the dynamic analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum is vital for investors. The current stability of both cryptocurrencies offers an insightful perspective on future market trends, providing a critical context for investor decisions.

*All currencies in the article are converted to South African currency ZAR

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